As a key component of electric vehicles (EVs), batteries are pivotal for decarbonising transportation and combating climate change. However, increasing competitive pressures in the battery ecosystem, driven by the race for next-generation batteries (NGBs) to address the limitations of current lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), highlight the importance of strategic decision-making. Leveraging data analytics for objective insights supports managing uncertainty in the highly competitive battery industry.
Our research focuses on an in-depth analysis of geostrategic competition for leadership in next-generation EV batteries. Having identified the most promising next-generation batteries for future electromobility through a combined analysis of scientific literature, policy reports from major EV markets, and expert opinion, we classified battery chemistries into design-to-cost batteries for low-cost vehicles or design-to-energy batteries for high-energy vehicles. Alongside six NGBs, we included two state-of-the-art LIBs as reference batteries for both low-cost and high-energy vehicles. The global patent landscape of 36,257 battery patent families across all eight battery chemistries was then analysed.
Key findings reveal, while China leads in patent quantity, its quality trails behind. The US maintains a qualitative advantage, although its innovation trajectory in NGBs is declining. Japan excels in lithium solid-state batteries, while South Korea leads in lithium air batteries. Europe shows negative technology trajectories, except for sodium-ion batteries. Japan cedes leadership in next-generation LIBs to China, which also leads in lithium-sulphur batteries, sodium-ion batteries, and new metal-ion batteries.
Practical implications highlight the diverse competitive dynamics across regions and types of NGBs, emphasising the need for policy support. Asian dominance in the NGB patent landscape underscores the importance of global innovation initiatives, exemplified by China’s government patent incentives and the US’s Inflation Reduction Act. The US and Europe are prioritising the development of domestic supply chains for current LIBs, while Asian regions, particularly China, are gaining a competitive edge in NGB research and development, necessitating streamlined policies for all competitors.
This research contributes to informing strategic decision-making under uncertainty by providing objective insights to guide policymakers, industry stakeholders and researchers through the geostrategic competition in next-generation EV batteries.